1) With Marv Marinovich's conditioning program, BJ Penn's movement is more fluid and more explosive, and he's gonna tear Diego Sanchez a new a-hole. Just look at his new look:
BJ Penn's training gave him a more refined look.
2) Sanchez reminds me of a young Manny Pacquiao during his Blow-by-Blow days (Mannyyyy Paccquiiaaoooo........Pacquiaooooo): he rushes in the middle of the ring, peppers his opponents with punches, and hopes that he gets a TKO or KO. While it has worked so far in his career earning him numerous decision wins, he also has shown that unlike the Pacman, he has trouble finishing opponents off. He might have a very strong chin, but his KO power is suspect.
3) Frank Mir looks bigger. He realized that in order to have a chance at an improved Brock Lesnar, he needs to put on some size so that he won't get ground-raped again. Let's see the impact of his size gain on his already suspect cardio.
4) Mir's striking has improved. Joining Team Sityodtong and getting Mark Delagrotte as a coach will do that. Just look at Kenny Florian when he was there.
Kenny Florian pre-BJ Penn ass whupping.
So here are my predictions for this Saturday's (Sunday AM in Manila) UFC 107
1. Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve.
This was orignally Buentello vs. Todd Duffee. If you don't know who Duffee is, he's the dude who won his last fight by KO IN 7 SECONDS. Anyway he got injured and replace by another dude who likes to finish fights. And boy he finishes them quickly.
Here's the thing. Buentello is a Kickboxer. Struve can strike but prefers to use his jiu-jitsu. Style conflict? Only half of the story.
Kicks are used to:
a) Maintain distance from the opponent while delivering solid offense
b) Set up a leg kick-punch combination
c) Knock people the f out with head kicks (Cro Cop) , body kicks (El Guapo Rutten), or leg kicks (Brandon Vera) . Let's hope Buentello has good leg kicks. After all, he's gonna have some trouble getting a head kick KO against Struve, who's nearly 7-feet tall:
Pictured: Kickboxer vs. Tall guy.
Although Struve took this fight on a short notice, I have him by a KO win. Just too big and I'm sure he'll use his ground game to his advantage.
2. Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida
I like watching these two guys fight (Guida especially) since they both have superb conditioning and a lot of heart. However, Guida hasn't really shown that he belongs in the LHW elite while Florian is looking to rebound from his 4th round murder by BJ Penn.
I'm looking at the fight to go to the ground with Florian using what Firas Zahabi taught him. After all, improvement in his ground game is the reason why he's joined Tri-Star Gym and train with GSP right?
Florian himself said it: He finishes fights. However, Guida has too much of a heart and a solid chin, and Florian too little KO power for this to not go the distance. I expect an all-out war with Florian winning by UD, and a lot of man-lovin being spread across the octagon.
3. Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
Jon Fitch is one talented dude. He looked very good against GSP. He's been on the road to redemption ever since, using his superior technique to rack them points up.
Mike Pierce is a UFC newbie who won his first match in the Octagon. However, since the UFC WW division is running out of challengers to GSP, I see a very motivated Fitch taking this by UD.
Looking forward, GSP will destroy Dan Hardy, then Kos, then be set-up with another battle with Fitch. After that I hope a Penn-St.Pierre 3 happens.
4. Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo.
This is an easy prediction. Mir can't strike while Congo has no ground game. However, I expect Mir to pull a Tim Sylvia on this one and win by submission.
After the fight, I'm sure Mir will be talking a lot of trash to Mr. Lesnar. I don't know why he wants to do that though, I'm sure he doesn't want his face looking like this again.
Brock Lesnar's day job is rearranging faces. Coz he's a heel. Get it?
5. BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez
The main event. Nothing needs to be stressed more than the fact that BJ Penn is much more talented than Diego Sanchez. Sure "The Nightmare" is very relentless and has machine guns for arms but all fight fans know that if Sanchez keeps on throwing punches all night long he will either
a) get countered and be dropped
or
b) get taken down and submitted
He's the bigger dude in this fight, but it isn't time for Penn to relinquish the belt and fight GSP yet. I still want to see him destroy Maynard, Frankie Edgar, and Shinya Aoki (if ever he heads to the UFC).
BJ Penn by submission. This WILL be the fight of the night.
Yes, I am a HUGE BJ Penn fan, but logic dictates that he is the more superior fighter. After all, he'll fight you to the death (0:08 mark).
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